AI in International Politics and US-China Relations:
Confrontation, Weaponization, and Loss of Control
Albert Einstein had the following quote: "I do not know with which weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." In this era of rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), we should have a definite answer to Einstein's question – World War III will be fought with AI as a weapon. Many people have concerns about AI becoming excessively intelligent and leading to the extinction of humanity. However, the most immediate threat is AI becoming a tool for international political dominance and even weaponization, being used on the battlefield in World War III.
Urgent Need for Effective AI Governance
Even for those who are most optimistic about AI technology, there are two sides to its impact on the future of humanity. On one hand, it brings infinite benefits and opportunities, but on the other hand, it can also pose significant risks and dangers. Therefore, in recent years, there have been numerous discussions in the international community regarding "AI governance."
"AI governance" refers to the principles, frameworks, and policies established to ensure responsible and ethical use of AI technology. It involves regulation and supervision of AI systems to ensure that their development, deployment, and use align with societal values, respect human rights, and minimize potential risks and harm.
From the perspective of AI technology's development, it is crucial to improve AI governance as early as possible. The evolution of AI technology can be roughly divided into three stages: the first stage is "narrow AI" (artificial narrow intelligence or ANI), where AI performs better than humans in specific tasks; the second stage is "general AI" (artificial general intelligence or AGI), where AI's capabilities are on par with humans and can perform any task at a human level; the final stage is "super AI" (artificial superintelligence or ASI), where AI surpasses human capabilities in all respects.
Currently, AI technology is still in the first stage of "narrow AI," but it has already raised significant concerns and controversies in society. It is conceivable that as we enter the second stage of "general AI," the impact and repercussions of AI on society will be even more profound. Therefore, effective AI governance is crucial, and the sooner it is implemented, the better.
AI Weaponization
However, even though we are still in the first stage of AI development, the weaponization of AI and its use on the battlefield has become an open secret. In June of this year, during the G7 (Group of Seven) summit held in Italy, Pope Francis made a historic and unprecedented participation as the first Pope to attend a G7 summit. One of the important issues the Pope addressed at the meeting was the weaponization of AI. Specifically, he focused on the ethical concerns raised by "lethal autonomous weapons systems" (LAWS), which refer to AI autonomously causing harm to other humans or even taking their lives without human permission.
Although LAWS have not been formally deployed, the use of AI to assist in killing on the battlefield has become a reality. One example is the use of AI technology to assist military drones in processing data, analyzing battlefield conditions, devising combat strategies quickly, and identifying targets, making drones more threatening and efficient killing weapons. Even though the final decision to attack is made by humans rather than AI, this does not significantly reduce the harm caused by AI to humans. Drones have become the primary attack weapons on the battlefields of conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war.
If a war were to occur in the Taiwan Strait in the future, it is believed that drones would also play a significant role on the battlefield and become indispensable tools in modern warfare. In the latest list of weapons sold by the United States to Taiwan, there are over 1,000 drones included, including the suicide drones that have been used in the Ukrainian conflict.
In an era where AI has the potential to pose a threat to the collective destiny of humanity, ensuring proper AI governance is an urgent matter. However, when faced with a tense international situation and increasingly confrontational US-China relations, AI governance naturally encounters more difficulties and challenges, becoming an increasingly impossible task. The underlying reason for this situation is simple - achieving effective AI governance requires the cooperation of all countries, especially major AI-developing nations, who must fulfill their responsibilities, adhere to commitments, and refrain from using AI for evil purposes. This includes not utilizing AI to develop weapons that could have devastating consequences for humanity in order to reduce the threat to human beings.
History of World War II May Repeat Itself
However, in an international landscape filled with competition and calculations, where the possibility of war exists, countries not only fail to cooperate but also strengthen their own national power, including military strength. Moreover, they adopt opposing stances and divergent approaches to AI governance. The situation mirrors that of the Second World War when the United States and Germany independently developed nuclear weapons, ultimately leading to the birth of the atomic bomb due to this international context, resulting in irreversible consequences. Unfortunately, a similar scenario could potentially repeat itself, transforming AI into weapons of war and tools of killing in the pursuit of global dominance by nations.
In the current tense and increasingly confrontational US-China relations, both countries being major players in AI development with cutting-edge technology, a trend has emerged where the one who controls the latest AI technology could potentially control the world's destiny.
Recently, at an international conference on digital governance and government, the author presented an academic paper (Note) comparing the AI development and strategies of Mainland China and Taiwan. Through analyzing the content of official AI documents from both entities, the findings indicate that, unlike Taiwan, Mainland China not only utilizes AI for economic development and internal governance but also emphasizes strengthening its national power through AI to become a superpower. In fact, as early as 2017, the State Council of Mainland China published a document titled "New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan," publicly setting a grand goal to transform Mainland China into a global innovation leader in AI by 2030.
Towards Polarization and Loss of Control
Both China and the United States are striving to become global leaders in AI and dominate other countries. Within the Western camp, an organization called the "AI Safety Summit" has been established. The first conference took place in the UK in November last year, followed by the second conference held in Seoul, South Korea, in May this year. One major flaw of this summit is that it tends to be a club for wealthy and developed nations, and despite two meetings, it has failed to reach any binding consensus. One of the main reasons for this is that the United States, as a major AI-developing nation, is reluctant to have AI development constrained. In 2023, China also released the "Global AI Governance Initiative" document, aiming to establish an alternative path and choice beyond the European and American models.
As the relationship between China and the United States shifts from cooperation to competition, the chances of AI being utilized for non-peaceful purposes increase. Currently, the real concern for humanity is not AI "awakening" and having independent thinking separate from humans, but rather AI being used as a tool of warfare by humans. In an era where the world is divided into two major camps, achieving global consensus on AI governance becomes increasingly challenging, and the development of AI becomes more prone to losing control.
Note: Wilson Wong, Natalie Wai-Man Wong, and Charles Hinnant. 2024. Adoption without Transformation: AI and Digital Transformation in China and Taiwan. In Proceedings of the 25th Annual International Conference on Digital Government Research (dg.o '24). Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, USA, 807-814.
Confrontation, Weaponization, and Loss of Control
Albert Einstein had the following quote: "I do not know with which weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." In this era of rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), we should have a definite answer to Einstein's question – World War III will be fought with AI as a weapon. Many people have concerns about AI becoming excessively intelligent and leading to the extinction of humanity. However, the most immediate threat is AI becoming a tool for international political dominance and even weaponization, being used on the battlefield in World War III.
Urgent Need for Effective AI Governance
Even for those who are most optimistic about AI technology, there are two sides to its impact on the future of humanity. On one hand, it brings infinite benefits and opportunities, but on the other hand, it can also pose significant risks and dangers. Therefore, in recent years, there have been numerous discussions in the international community regarding "AI governance."
"AI governance" refers to the principles, frameworks, and policies established to ensure responsible and ethical use of AI technology. It involves regulation and supervision of AI systems to ensure that their development, deployment, and use align with societal values, respect human rights, and minimize potential risks and harm.
From the perspective of AI technology's development, it is crucial to improve AI governance as early as possible. The evolution of AI technology can be roughly divided into three stages: the first stage is "narrow AI" (artificial narrow intelligence or ANI), where AI performs better than humans in specific tasks; the second stage is "general AI" (artificial general intelligence or AGI), where AI's capabilities are on par with humans and can perform any task at a human level; the final stage is "super AI" (artificial superintelligence or ASI), where AI surpasses human capabilities in all respects.
Currently, AI technology is still in the first stage of "narrow AI," but it has already raised significant concerns and controversies in society. It is conceivable that as we enter the second stage of "general AI," the impact and repercussions of AI on society will be even more profound. Therefore, effective AI governance is crucial, and the sooner it is implemented, the better.
AI Weaponization
However, even though we are still in the first stage of AI development, the weaponization of AI and its use on the battlefield has become an open secret. In June of this year, during the G7 (Group of Seven) summit held in Italy, Pope Francis made a historic and unprecedented participation as the first Pope to attend a G7 summit. One of the important issues the Pope addressed at the meeting was the weaponization of AI. Specifically, he focused on the ethical concerns raised by "lethal autonomous weapons systems" (LAWS), which refer to AI autonomously causing harm to other humans or even taking their lives without human permission.
Although LAWS have not been formally deployed, the use of AI to assist in killing on the battlefield has become a reality. One example is the use of AI technology to assist military drones in processing data, analyzing battlefield conditions, devising combat strategies quickly, and identifying targets, making drones more threatening and efficient killing weapons. Even though the final decision to attack is made by humans rather than AI, this does not significantly reduce the harm caused by AI to humans. Drones have become the primary attack weapons on the battlefields of conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war.
If a war were to occur in the Taiwan Strait in the future, it is believed that drones would also play a significant role on the battlefield and become indispensable tools in modern warfare. In the latest list of weapons sold by the United States to Taiwan, there are over 1,000 drones included, including the suicide drones that have been used in the Ukrainian conflict.
In an era where AI has the potential to pose a threat to the collective destiny of humanity, ensuring proper AI governance is an urgent matter. However, when faced with a tense international situation and increasingly confrontational US-China relations, AI governance naturally encounters more difficulties and challenges, becoming an increasingly impossible task. The underlying reason for this situation is simple - achieving effective AI governance requires the cooperation of all countries, especially major AI-developing nations, who must fulfill their responsibilities, adhere to commitments, and refrain from using AI for evil purposes. This includes not utilizing AI to develop weapons that could have devastating consequences for humanity in order to reduce the threat to human beings.
History of World War II May Repeat Itself
However, in an international landscape filled with competition and calculations, where the possibility of war exists, countries not only fail to cooperate but also strengthen their own national power, including military strength. Moreover, they adopt opposing stances and divergent approaches to AI governance. The situation mirrors that of the Second World War when the United States and Germany independently developed nuclear weapons, ultimately leading to the birth of the atomic bomb due to this international context, resulting in irreversible consequences. Unfortunately, a similar scenario could potentially repeat itself, transforming AI into weapons of war and tools of killing in the pursuit of global dominance by nations.
In the current tense and increasingly confrontational US-China relations, both countries being major players in AI development with cutting-edge technology, a trend has emerged where the one who controls the latest AI technology could potentially control the world's destiny.
Recently, at an international conference on digital governance and government, the author presented an academic paper (Note) comparing the AI development and strategies of Mainland China and Taiwan. Through analyzing the content of official AI documents from both entities, the findings indicate that, unlike Taiwan, Mainland China not only utilizes AI for economic development and internal governance but also emphasizes strengthening its national power through AI to become a superpower. In fact, as early as 2017, the State Council of Mainland China published a document titled "New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan," publicly setting a grand goal to transform Mainland China into a global innovation leader in AI by 2030.
Towards Polarization and Loss of Control
Both China and the United States are striving to become global leaders in AI and dominate other countries. Within the Western camp, an organization called the "AI Safety Summit" has been established. The first conference took place in the UK in November last year, followed by the second conference held in Seoul, South Korea, in May this year. One major flaw of this summit is that it tends to be a club for wealthy and developed nations, and despite two meetings, it has failed to reach any binding consensus. One of the main reasons for this is that the United States, as a major AI-developing nation, is reluctant to have AI development constrained. In 2023, China also released the "Global AI Governance Initiative" document, aiming to establish an alternative path and choice beyond the European and American models.
As the relationship between China and the United States shifts from cooperation to competition, the chances of AI being utilized for non-peaceful purposes increase. Currently, the real concern for humanity is not AI "awakening" and having independent thinking separate from humans, but rather AI being used as a tool of warfare by humans. In an era where the world is divided into two major camps, achieving global consensus on AI governance becomes increasingly challenging, and the development of AI becomes more prone to losing control.
Note: Wilson Wong, Natalie Wai-Man Wong, and Charles Hinnant. 2024. Adoption without Transformation: AI and Digital Transformation in China and Taiwan. In Proceedings of the 25th Annual International Conference on Digital Government Research (dg.o '24). Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, USA, 807-814.